CEE Reacts to Trump Rally Shooting

Some CEE leaders were worried about democratic security. Others, like the Slovakian PM who survived an assassination attempt this May, were prone to conspiracy theories.

As Trump looks to use this moment to his advantage, the CEE looks towards a critical EU vote on 18 July, which will decide if Ursula von der Leyen will soon start a second term.

Upcoming on Visegrad Insight:

• Alina Inayeh breaks down the results of the NATO summit and what it means for Central and Eastern Europe.
• Matej Šimalčík will also focus on security but on the outcomes of the alliance’s summit in Washington towards China and the Indo-Pacific region.

NATO Summit pinpoints Russia-China threat but makes no progress on Ukrainian membership

GLOBAL

• Donald Tusk, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Viktor Orbán and other CEE leaders all reacted to the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. 
• “I wish President Donald Trump a speedy and full recovery. Violence is never the answer to political differences in a democracy. I am sure this is one thing we can all agree on without any shadow of doubt,” wrote Tusk.
• “Such violence has no justification and no place anywhere in the world. Never should violence prevail. I am relieved to learn that Donald Trump is now safe and wish him a speedy recovery.…I wish America emerges stronger from this,” said Zelenskyy. 
• “My thoughts and prayers are with President @realDonaldTrump in these dark hours,” tweeted Orbán. 
• Czech President Peter Pavel said that “Violence does not belong in a democratic society, therefore, it is necessary to unequivocally condemn the attack on the former American president (…) I wish Donald Trump a speedy recovery.”
• “Political violence is both unforgivable and intolerable, it has no place in democracy. I extend my best wishes for Donald Trump’s swift and complete recovery,” remarked Estonian President Alar Karis.
• Outgoing PM Kaja Kallas, who is to become the EU’s foreign policy chief, said: “My thoughts are with the victims. Political violence in any form has no justification.” 
• Robert Fico, however, opted for a more conspiratorial take: “It’s a carbon copy of the script. Trump’s political opponents are trying to shut him down. When they fail, they incite the public until some poor guy takes up arms.”

• NATO allies called out the PRC for its role as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war against Ukraine and its so-called “no limits” partnership in a communiqué published at the NATO Summit in Washington.
• The Chinese foreign ministry responded by criticising the text’s “malicious intent”, but NATO allies have made clear they are serious and prepared to cut investment to China if it keeps up its support for Russia – which has certainly been decisive; Polish FM Radosław Sikorski has said that Russia’s reliance is so great that it will soon “end up as a vassal of China.”
• NATO’s global influence and China’s threat to that order was highlighted by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who made clear that “What happens in Ukraine today can happen in Asia tomorrow.”
• In fact, Taiwan was closely watching China’s military movements last week after detecting the most Chinese warplanes near the island in a 24-hour window so far in 2024. Beijing was simultaneously conducting drills, which coincided with the NATO summit in Washington, in Taiwan and Belarus – but more on this later.

• NATO leaders resisted offering Ukraine a timeline towards membership, in a move labelled “unprecedented and absurd” by Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
• Lithuanian FM Gabrielius Landsbergis was similarly disappointed with his allies’ lack of ambition: “Allies really…avoid any political battle when it comes to negotiations, and bring what you could call a clean text that has a bar [that’s] lower, but where everyone finds an agreement…[and] some level of comfort”.
• For more on why this outcome is disappointing, but not unexpected, read here.
• That said, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan announced that the alliance will create a new command to help train and bolster Ukraine’s armed forces, to be based in Germany and led by a three-star general.
• Sullivan also said that 20 countries and the US would join a new “Ukraine compact,” and that Stoltenberg would appoint a new NATO military representative to Kyiv to bolster the ties between Ukraine and the alliance.
• The US, the Netherlands, Italy, Romania and Germany also announced that they will each offer a new, long-range air defence system for Ukraine.

• EU ambassadors gathered to condemn Viktor Orbán and his visits to Moscow and Beijing in a closed-door discussion on 10 July.
• The Hungarian PM’s timing could not have been worse, as he met with Vladimir Putin on a so-called “peace mission” just days before the US and Germany foiled a Russian plot to kill the head of arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, Armin Papperger.
• American military bases around Europe were also placed on heightened alert last week after intelligence reports suggested Russian actors were plotting increased sabotage – following acts of arson in Riga, Warsaw, Prague, London and Paris.
• In response, delegations have boycotted Council meetings, including Hungary’s first Council meeting on 9 July to which only seven countries sent their industry ministers.
• Member countries have also signed a Polish demand for discussion about the legality of Orbán’s “peace mission”, while Estonian EPP lawmaker Riho Terras has been gathering support for a letter calling on Brussels to suspend Hungary’s voting rights.
• For more on what can be expected of the Hungarian EUCO Presidency, read here.

• Viktor Orbán’s newly-formed EU alliance saw a surge of far-right parties join its ranks last week, led by France’s Marine Le Pen, amassing 84 members.
• For more on the trajectories of Marine le Pen and President Macron, read here.
• The Patriots for Europe now include the National Rally (France – 30 MEPs), Fidesz (Hungary – 11), League (Italy – 8), Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (Czechia – 7 ), Vox (Spain – 6), Freedom Party (Austria – 6), Party for Freedom (Netherlands – 6), Vlaams Belang (Belgium – 3), Oath and Motorists (Czechia – 2), Chega (Portugal – 2), Danish People’s Party (1), Voice of Reason (Greece – 1) and Latvia First (1).
• Unsurprisingly, Ursula von der Leyen was quick to make clear behind the scenes that the Patriots for Europe alliance would be covered by a cordon sanitaire.
• Another far-right EP grouping was also launched last week – the Europe of Sovereign Nations – consisting of members from Alternative for Germany, Revival (Bulgaria), Reconquête (France), Republic Movement (Slovakia), Our Homeland Movement (Hungary), People and Justice Union (Lithuania), and Freedom and Direct Democracy (Czechia).
• However, the Confederation Party in Poland is divided with some members wanting to join the Europe of Sovereign Nations and others planning to coalesce around Orbán’s Patriots for Europe.

• China is reportedly investigating whether EU actions in the rail, solar and wind power sectors represent an illegal barrier to free trade.
• If the country determines that an EU measure is illegal, it could conduct bilateral talks, start a multilateral dispute settlement or take retaliatory measures.
• China responded only recently to requests for talks in the EU’s investigation into EV subsidies, despite attempts to engage for months, according to the bloc’s ambassador in Beijing.

Zelenskyy urges allies not to “wait for November” as Russia strikes Kyiv children’s hospital

UKRAINE

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