Europe’s Population Set to Shrink 20% by 2100, Raising Concerns

Europe’s population crash has been unfolding for years, with birth rates falling below the level needed to maintain stability. By 2100, Europe’s total population is expected to shrink by 152.2 million, a 20% decline. This trend is accelerating, raising concerns about the continent’s future.

Many European nations will see significant population losses in the coming decades. A shrinking population poses economic risks, reducing demand for goods and services and slowing growth. It also leads to a smaller tax base, making it harder to support the social programs that many countries depend on.

For decades, immigration from Asia and the Middle East has helped balance these losses. However, experts question whether migration alone can sustain Europe’s population in the long run.

Countries with the most population decline

Several European countries will see dramatic population declines by 2100, with some losing more than half of their current population.

Ukraine is expected to experience the steepest drop, with a 61% decline, translating to a loss of 23.8 million people. North Macedonia and Belarus follow closely, projected to shrink by 52%. Bosnia & Herzegovina, Lithuania, and Albania will each lose 57% of their populations, making them some of the hardest-hit nations.

Poland faces a significant decline of 18.8 million people, or 49%, while Bulgaria, Serbia, and Montenegro will each see a reduction of over 40%.

Greece is also among the affected countries, expecting a 37% drop, equating to 3.7 million fewer people by the end of the century.

Larger economies will not be spared. Italy is set to lose 23.8 million people, a 40% decline. Germany will see a 16% decrease, with 13.1 million fewer residents. Spain and Russia will also face major demographic shifts, shrinking by 31% and 12%, respectively.

Smaller nations will also experience sharp declines. Estonia, Slovenia, Kosovo, and Malta are all set to lose over 30% of their populations. Even Iceland, despite a relatively lower percentage drop (9%), will still face demographic challenges.

Countries with an increasing population till 2100

While many European countries face population declines, a few are projected to grow by the end of the century. These nations will see population increases due to immigration and stable birth rates.

The United Kingdom is expected to see the largest growth, adding 4.8 million people, a 7% increase by 2100. France will also experience moderate growth, with its population rising by 1.8 million, an increase of 3%.

In Sweden, the population is set to grow by 710,000 people, or 7%, while Switzerland is expected to see a smaller rise of 2%, adding 158,700 residents.

Smaller nations will also see positive trends. Luxembourg is projected to grow by 10%, adding 67,500 people, while Liechtenstein will increase by 9%, gaining 3,500 residents. Monaco is expected to have the highest percentage increase at 24%, though in absolute numbers, this translates to just 9,100 additional residents.