In the vanguard: Eastern Europe’s military spending efforts
Source: Euractiv
BRUSSELS – For Central and Eastern Europe, defence spending isn’t just diplomatic noise. Russia’s war in Ukraine, now in its third year, has turned dormant defence budgets into front-page news.
EU and NATO countries closest to the Kremlin’s backyard have responded with a surge in spending that is outpacing their Western counterparts – much in line with US President Donald Trump’s repeated call for NATO allies to pull their weight.
At a campaign rally last year, the US president suggested he would let Russia “do whatever the hell they want” to countries that don’t meet NATO’s 2% GDP defence spending target. More recently, he floated a jaw-dropping 5% benchmark – unrealistic for most, but a clear message: Washington expects more.
But as Friday’s breakdown between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy illustrated yet again, Europe can no longer be sure of American support, no matter how much it spends. That reality makes improving the region’s military capabilities all the more urgent.
Here’s a rundown of where Central and Eastern European nations stand, why they are spending, and what it means for the continent’s security chessboard.
Polish heavyweight. Poland is the poster child for Trump’s demands – and then some. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine got Warsaw, which shares a border with both Ukraine and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, all fired up.
In 2024, Warsaw’s defence spending reached 4.12% of GDP, with plans to increase this to 4.7% by 2025 – the highest percentage of GDP for a NATO country, even compared to the US’ 3.4% of GDP (although US spending is, of course, higher in real terms).
The money is fueling a military overhaul: think 250,000 professional soldiers, upgrades to its ageing F-16 fleet, and a relentless push for NATO to rethink its 2% baseline. Poland is also modernising its air force with new F-35 jets, ordered in 2020, and FA-50 light fighters, purchased in 2022.
Warsaw is not just spending – it is flexing, positioning itself as an indispensable player on the Eastern flank.
Czeching in on defence. Czechia, which spent 2% of GDP on defence in 2024, is aiming to reach around 2.3% this year.
Prague pales compared to Poland’s blockbuster figures, but Russia’s war has spurred it into action as the country only dedicated 1.5% of its GDP to defence in 2023.
The country is modernising a military long saddled with outdated equipment, with major purchases such as 24 F-35 jets and Leopard 2 tanks in the pipeline.
On the Ukraine aid front, Czechia has been very active. Besides sending over $1 billion in aid to Ukraine, earning praise from NATO, it launched a Europe-wide initiative to procure ammunition for Ukraine in early 2024.
The plan, backed by several EU and NATO states, aims to secure hundreds of thousands of shells from global suppliers for Ukraine’s defences – highlighting Prague’s growing role as a security broker in Europe.
Slovakia, NATO’s enfant terrible. Bratislava hit 2% of GDP in 2024, but since Fico’s return to power in 2023, the country has taken a sharp anti-Ukraine turn.
Slovakia has cut off military aid to the war-torn country, although it continues to supply Ukraine with arms on a commercial basis. Fico himself is openly cozying up to Moscow and even visited Putin in December 2024.
Earlier this week, Defence Minister Robert Kaliňák from Fico’s party reiterated Slovakia’s reluctance to increase the defence budget past the 2% threshold, despite an apparent willingness to discuss its increase by “a slight increase of about a tenth of a percent”.
Caught between pressure from Trump and anti-Ukraine politics on the domestic front, Bratislava is looking more like a wildcard in NATO’s lineup.
Estonia: a small country with a big checkbook. In 2024, Estonia spent an impressive 3.43% of GDP on defence but the small nation of 1.3 million is not stopping there.
Estonia, which sits close to Russia and struggles with haunting memories of Soviet occupation, is pouring money into cyber defence and strengthening NATO’s Baltic presence. A signal to Trump – and Putin – that small countries can punch above their weight.
Lithuania’s steady climb. Lithuania’s defence budget hit 2.8% of GDP in 2024, putting it close to the NATO vanguard amid Russia’s unrelenting aggression.
President Gitanas Nausėda has embraced Trump’s bold 5% pitch, vowing to boost spending to 5-6% by 2026, though analysts say it’s a long shot given the economic headwinds.
The cash is flowing into drones, HIMARS artillery, and a landmark deal to host 5,000 German troops by 2027 – a stark pivot for a nation once sceptical of foreign bases.
Latvia catching up. Latvia, which already spent 3.45% in 2024, is going all in. Sandwiched between Estonia and Lithuania, it is part of the Baltic trio sounding the alarm on Moscow.
The money is funding the training of troops and NATO interoperability, but Latvia is also eyeing bigger hardware. Inflation is a headache, but Riga is determined to keep pace with its neighbours.
Romania: less flashy but no less serious. In 2024, Romania hit 2.5% of GDP, roughly €7,95 billion, with plans to hold steady. Bordering Ukraine, Bucharest has watched Russia’s Black Sea ambitions with growing unease.
The money is modernising an ageing military – think US HIMARS systems – and strengthening NATO’s south-eastern flank. Romania doesn’t shout about it, but it’s a reliable cog in the alliance machine.
The Greek outlier. Greece spent 3% of GDP on defence in 2024, driven less by Russia and more by its eternal rivalry with Turkey, a NATO ally turned frenemy.
Athens is investing in Rafale jets, F-35s and frigates, and flexing its naval muscles in the Aegean. Trump may not care about the Ankara angle, but he’d approve of the numbers.
Bulgaria barely scraping by. Bulgaria is seen as one of the weak links on NATO’s eastern flank, and its army still uses outdated Soviet weapons, but not for long.
In 2024, Bulgaria spent 2.5% of GDP due to major military deals and a 30% increase in army salaries to attract new soldiers.
Between 16 F-16 Block 70 fighter jets – eight of which are due in 2025 – Stryker armoured vehicles and Javelin missiles from the US, as well as an IRIS-T SLM missile system and patrol vessels from the Lurssen shipyard from Germany and 3D radars from France’s Thales, Bulgaria is shopping all over town to modernise its military.
Germany is also in the mix, supplying a €182 million IRIS-T SLM missile system and €1 billion worth of patrol vessels from the Lurssen shipyard, while France’s Thales rounds out the spree with €140 million in 3D radars, cementing Sofia’s multi-nation push to modernise its military.
The bigger picture
Central and Eastern Europe’s spending spree – driven by Poland, the Baltics, and Romania – marks a tectonic shift.
These countries, once dismissed as junior partners, are now in the vanguard of NATO, outpacing Western giants such as Germany (2%) and France (projected 2% by 2025) in percentage terms.
Russia’s war has flipped the script: the West is playing catch-up with a leading East, which is understandable given the East’s geographical proximity to Russia.
But it’s not all rosy as inflation, for example – highest in the Baltic States at over 15% in 2023 – is eating away at purchasing power.
For now, the message from Central and Eastern Europe is clear: spend big because you’ve got to. Trump’s pressure may be the extra push that keeps the momentum going – or exposes the limits of what money alone can achieve.
[DE, mk]
The original article: belongs to Euractiv .
