Macron’s next move is crucial – this crisis risks pulling France apart
Source: inews.co.uk
France’s President, Emmanuel Macron, will be in his element on Saturday as he grandly welcomes world leaders to Paris – including the US president-elect, Donald Trump, – for the formal reopening of Notre Dame cathedral five years after a devastating fire. Behind the pomp and ceremony, however, Macron is likely to be scrambling to contain the biggest political crisis of his presidency after today’s almost certain parliamentary vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister, Michel Barnier.
Barnier has been Prime Minister for only three months, but his precarious parliamentary pact with Marine Le Pen’s hard-right National Rally (RN) party has collapsed over a budget dispute, and she has pledged to vote against the government in the no-confidence motion, which will be debated today at 4pm local time (3pm GMT).
The political crisis stems from the deadlock that resulted from July’s parliamentary elections, with French National Assembly now divided into three political blocs: Macron’s centrists, the far-right National Rally, and the left-wing NFP coalition.
Macron’s choice of Barnier – a veteran conservative and former EU Brexit negotiator –- as prime minister in September was an attempt to bridge the gap between centrists and conservatives while appeasing parts of the far right, which had abstained in his confirmation vote.
But Barnier’s minority government was always vulnerable to Le Pen’s whims. The crunch came as he attempted to trim social security as part of a broad package of €60bn (£50bn) of tax increases and spending cuts, designed to balance the books. He gave ground to some of Le Pen’s demands, including cancelling cuts to medical reimbursements, but he refused to cancel tweaks to the state pension.
The measure passed on Monday without a vote, using a constitutional measure known as article 49.3. The decision means Barnier’s government now faces a vote of confidence from opposition parties, a prospect that was always on the cards following the inconclusive parliamentary elections in July.
Le Pen said on Tuesday that she backed the no-confidence motion as the only constitutional way to protect the French public from a “dangerous, unjust and punitive budget, which, moreover, worsens the already monstrous deficits of seven years of Macronism”.
Le Pen herself faces other pressures: a court ruling is due next March on the alleged misuse of European Parliament funds: if found guilty, she could be barred from standing for public office for five years. But she feels she is on the ascendant, not least because Macron, who defeated her in the 2017 and 2022 presidential run-offs, is so weakened. Macron’s mandate runs until 2027, but his political capital is shrinking fast.
Barnier was unrepentant. “I honestly believe that the French people will not forgive us if we prefer partisan interests to the best interest of the nation,” he told lawmakers. “This is a moment of truth in which everybody must take their responsibilities. I am taking mine.”
Barnier’s coalition, which includes the traditional conservative LR party and Macron’s centrist Ensemble, can only muster 211 MPs, and has until now relied on abstentions from the RN’s 126 MPs to secure a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly.
The vote today brings together the RN and the other main opposition, a four-party left-wing alliance known as the New Popular Front (NFP), which has 182 MPs, in an unholy alliance with the joint aim of mortally damaging Macron.
But the consequences are far from certain. Macron recklessly called snap elections in June, and saw his allies lose ground. The difficult parliamentary negotiations that followed meant it was only in September that Barnier was appointed.
Macron cannot call fresh parliamentary elections until July. However, he is now so distrusted by most of the other parties that they will be reluctant to work with him. The NFP is particularly aggrieved that after the second round of the parliamentary elections in July, when they voted tactically for Macron’s allies to thwart the RN, it did not lead to any subsequent centre-left coalition.
The uncertainty about Barnier’s budget has already unsettled markets, with France’s borrowing costs briefly surpassing those of Greece last week in a symbolic moment for both economies. While France’s debt and deficit is still high, markets – and the European Commission – are more concerned about the financial impact of any political uncertainty.
These political jitters are unusual in modern France: the last time the National Assembly voted down a government was in 1962. But Macron has already indicated he wants to move faster this time than in July.
One option would be to re-appoint Barnier, but that runs the risk of falling foul of a new vote of confidence. Other conservative names suggested include veteran centrist François Bayrou, former Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau and the President of the Senate Gérard Larcher. Or he could turn to a technocratic figure with no political background to break the impasse. However, any new government would face the same challenges of passing legislation in a deadlocked parliament.
Macron could also reach out to the centre-left, whom he studiously ignored in July: the moderate Socialist Party (PS) and the greens in the NFP alliance could be peeled off from the rest of the bloc to ally with the centrists in Macron’s Renaissance party.
If all that fails, he would effectively have to retain Barnier, but only as the head of a caretaker government, with limited powers – and the budget that proved so contentious, would be rejected.
A further – though unlikely – scenario is that Macron resigns himself. His mandate runs until 2027, but expect him to leave the Elysée, even if Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who leads one of the leftist parties, are expected to demand it.
Whatever the case, France is bracing for an long and unprecedented period of uncertainty. The political deadlock, combined with fiscal challenges, threatens to undermine confidence both domestically and in Europe. Macron’s next move will be crucial: he must either find a way to build consensus or risk further destabilising France’s political landscape.
The original article: belongs to inews.co.uk .
