3 June 2024

The June 9 elections are set to play a significant role in shaping the political landscape in Cyprus, with unique factors influencing the outcome and the post-election environment.

One of the most notable aspects of the European Parliament elections, since their inception, is that Turkish Cypriots can participate as equal citizens of the Republic of Cyprus. Unlike the restrictions imposed by the Constitution of the Republic of Cyprus, where each community elects its representatives separately, these prohibitions do not apply to the European elections (at least as long as the current political situation on the island continues).

As a result, Turkish Cypriots, thanks to European legislation, have a significant privilege in electing the six members of the European Parliament who represent (other than their parties) the Republic of Cyprus. This right allows them to play a more significant political role than the Constitution of the Republic of Cyprus permits.

Under the Cypriot Constitution, Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots can only influence political/party matters within their respective communities. However, in the European elections, the participation of Turkish Cypriots within a unified electorate can shape the post-election political scene within the Greek Cypriot community.

In these European elections, registered Turkish Cypriot voters number slightly over 103,000, an increase of about 30,000 compared to 2019. This is a significant figure in an electorate of 706,000 voters. If this electoral right translates into actual participation, it could create new dynamics with broader political implications.

Until 2019, the European elections were a domain where the Democratic Rally (DISY) comfortably held sway. However, the successful 2019 campaign gave the Progressive Party of Working People (AKEL) a new advantage, which it aims to leverage in the upcoming elections.

The involvement of leftist Turkish Cypriot parties, particularly the Republican Turkish Party, has been more systematic and organised this year, aiming to support AKEL, the first party to elect a Turkish Cypriot to the European Parliament.

In the 2019 European elections, AKEL’s vote share increased by approximately 1.5% due to Turkish Cypriot votes, enabling the leftist party to secure a respectable percentage and avoid internal conflicts. This additional support helped cover significant gaps in voter turnout that AKEL typically faced.

Given the current situation, if AKEL can secure a 1.5-2% increase through Turkish Cypriot participation, it could achieve a groundbreaking electoral victory. On the other hand, DISY faces the risk of a significant defeat due to its inability to attract Turkish Cypriot voters.

The only viable strategy for DISY, with the elections approaching, is to mobilize dissatisfied and disengaged voters to go to the polls. While challenging, this effort is crucial to avoid a more severe internal party crisis.

The original article: https://in-cyprus.philenews.com/opinion/turkish-cypriots-will-decide-the-result-and-the-political-landscape/ belongs to in-cyprus.com .