US Abortion Bans Lead to More Births But Also Higher Infant Mortality, Study finds

Researchers have found that US states with abortion bans experienced higher-than-expected birth and infant mortality rates, according to two studies published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). The findings highlight significant increases in birth rates, especially among younger women, Black infants, individuals with less education, and Medicaid recipients.

The research conducted by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health analyzed data from 2012 to 2023 across all 50 states and Washington, D.C. The team used birth certificates, census records, and death certificates to study trends before and after abortion bans were implemented.

Abortion bans linked to higher birth rates

The study titled “US Abortion Bans and Fertility” found that states with full abortion bans or ones beginning at six weeks saw notable increases in birth rates. The overall fertility rate rose by 1.7%, resulting in 22,180 more births than expected. This translates to an increase of 1.01 births per 1,000 reproductive-aged females.

The increase was not evenly distributed: birth rates among racially minoritized individuals increased by approximately 2%, while rates among unmarried women rose by nearly 1.79%. Women younger than 35 saw a 2% rise, with Medicaid beneficiaries experiencing a 2.41% increase. Births also increased among those without college degrees, with rates up 2.36% for high school graduates and 1.58% for individuals with some college education.

US states that implemented abortion bans saw higher than expected infant mortality rates, with larger increases among Black infants and those in southern states, according to this analysis of US national vital statistics data from 2012–2023.https://t.co/9zGHKDu2d8 pic.twitter.com/GAOoUjb2r5

— JAMA (@JAMA_current) February 13, 2025

State-level differences were pronounced. Texas recorded the largest rise in birth rates, with a 2.32% increase. Kentucky followed at 1.41%, with Mississippi close behind at 1.35%. Southern states, as a whole, experienced roughly twice the increase in fertility rates compared to states in other regions. Researchers noted that differences in race, ethnicity, and education levels explained much of the variation across states.

Infant mortality increases after abortion bans

A second study, “US Abortion Bans and Infant Mortality”, examined the relationship between abortion restrictions and infant deaths. Using national birth and death records from 2012 to 2023, researchers compared states with bans to those without.

The findings showed that states with complete or six-week bans had an infant mortality rate of 6.26 deaths per 1,000 live births—higher than the expected rate of 5.93. This 5.6% increase equated to an estimated 478 additional infant deaths.

Texas once again accounted for a significant share of the increase, with its infant mortality rate rising from an expected 5.30 to 5.79 per 1,000 live births. The rise was more pronounced in Southern states, where infant death rates increased disproportionately.

Black infants were the most affected group, with their mortality rate climbing nearly 10.98%. The rate rose from 10.66 to 11.81 per 1,000 live births, an increase of 1.15 deaths per 1,000. This translated to an estimated 265 additional deaths.

Rising deaths from congenital anomalies

Deaths caused by congenital anomalies also increased. The rate reached 1.37 per 1,000 live births, up from the expected 1.24—a rise of nearly 10.87%. Deaths from other causes also rose, increasing from 4.69 to 4.89 per 1,000 live births.

The research team concluded that states enforcing abortion bans experienced significant increases in both fertility and infant mortality rates. The most vulnerable groups included younger individuals, Black infants, those with lower educational attainment, and Medicaid recipients.