US aid cuts could lead to more refugee movements, migration to Europe

Massive cuts in US development aid could drive more people to seek asylum in Europe, Svenja Schulze, German Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development warned, German news agency KNA reported on Tuesday, March 18.

Schulze’s pronouncement came as countries around the world continue reeling from the impact of the Trump administration’s decision to cut back more than 90 percent of its foreign aid contracts and some US 60 billion US dollars in development funding.  

In 2024, for the third straight year, the European Union, Norway, and Switzerland (referred to together as EU+) again saw more than 1 million asylum applications. Cuts in the US Agency for International Development (USAID) budgets may worsen the political and economic factors that contribute to migration and further compel people to leave their countries of origin and seek international protection in Europe.

While it may still be too early to ascertain the impact of any direct correlation between funding cuts and migration, the withdrawal of US financial backing will be devastating.

In a statement made last month when the budget cuts were announced or began, Schulze warned, “One thing is clear: a US withdrawal could have very painful consequences, especially for some of the poorest countries that depend heavily on American support.”

Schulze added that neither Germany nor the European Union would be able to fill the funding gaps the US, as the world’s largest development aid donor, cracked open.  

InfoMigrants looked at some top countries of origin to see how the slashing of development aid may impact migration and mobility. 

#1 – Compound the economic and political upheaval in Senegal 

In the most recent annual report analyzing asylum trends for the EU+ over the past year, the European Union’s asylum agency noted an “unprecedented uptick” in asylum applications from Senegal.

Applications from Senegalese nationals doubled to 14,000 and were reported to have been influenced by the country’s political and economic landscape, high unemployment, particularly for the youth sector, and the underdevelopment of the agricultural sector made worse by climate change.  

The International Labor Organization (ILO) classified Senegal as a country of destination for many other African nationals seeking better economic opportunities. However, from once occupying a position of stability in a volatile region, Senegal is now seeing an increase in emigration because of its worsening political and economic conditions.   

An estimated 75 percent of people living in rural areas in Senegal are dependent on agriculture as a source of livelihood. Meanwhile, data shows that the share of the Senegalese youth population between the ages of 15-24 looking for work, remained unchanged at 4.3 percent, indicating that job prospects for this age group are not improving.  

The Associated Press reported that because of USAID cuts, the biggest malaria project in Senegal closed in addition to maternal and child health and nutrition services. 

Additionally, data from the USAID website indicates that last year the biggest chunk of US funding of about 17 million US dollars went to funding Feed the Future, an agricultural and food security program meant to alleviate its impact on poverty. 

This year, 3.4 million US dollars were allocated to the Green Recovery Investment Platform (GRIP) meant to stimulate and sustain recovery efforts from the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The closure of the malaria project combined with other development projects at risk could prompt more Senegalese nationals to attempt to enter Europe.

Senegal, located on the western coast of Africa and part of the troubled Sahel Region, is a main jumping-off point for thousands of people attempting to enter Europe via the Spanish Canary Islands, which is about 1,500 and 2,100 kilometers (up to 1,300 miles) away. 

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#2 – Worsen the political instability in Mali 

The UN Refugee Agency estimates that about 5.5 million people in the African Central Sahel region which includes Mali have been displaced by the insecurity brought on by the climate crisis intersecting with the political instability in the region. 

Mali has been experiencing continued escalating violence and instability stemming from a 2021 coup and the withdrawal of Western military forces and military alliance with Russia. Analysts have warned that jihadist groups could exploit the security vacuum left by the pull-out of forces.

The Associated Press reported that US aid in Mali that provided access to water, food, and health services was cut for more than 270,000 people.

This year, about US 1.8 million dollars went into supporting peace and security programs to develop and support early warning and response protocols.

The displacement in the Sahel coincides with record numbers of migrant arrivals on the Canary Islands, namely from Senegal and Mali.

In 2024, Spanish authorities reported about 47,000 irregular arrivals in the Canary Islands. Border guard agency Frontex said that the route from West Africa to the Canaries was the EU’s busiest migratory route by year-end. 

Research by the Independent Social Research Foundation think tank argues that migration and displacement due to the political situation in the Sahel mostly take place within Africa.  

“The idea of high migration figures between Africa and Europe is a myth,” said the study which called for interventions that not only address the root causes of migration but also highlight the mutual benefits of migration to sending and receiving countries.  

# 3 – Derail the possible return of Syrians to their country

The largest number of asylum applications filed in the EU+ last year came from Syrian nationals. More than 150,000 asylum applications were lodged by Syrians in Germany, Greece, and Austria. 

However, the fall of the Assad regime last December saw the possibility of many Syrians going back to their country and rebuilding. US development aid cuts may derail this. 

From 520 million US dollars in 2024, funding reported on the USAID website took a nose dive to 1.6 million US dollars in 2025. One budget line pegged at 1.5 million US dollars of assistance this year is set for a 12-month follow program that will provide humanitarian assistance in northwest and northeast Syria. It is unclear if funding for this project has been stopped but citing the U.N. Secretary-General, the Associated Press reported that aid programs for some 2.5 million people in the country’s northeast stopped providing services, according to the U.N. Secretary-General.

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#4 – Aggravate the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan  

Since the Taliban reclaimed control of Afghanistan in 2021, the country has plummeted further into political and economic instability. The situation is further worsened by frequent natural disasters.

From January 10, 2024, to March 5, 2025, the UN’s Relief Web reported that 187,354 people were affected by natural disasters throughout Afghanistan, affecting all 34 of its provinces. 

There were an estimated 87,382 asylum claims filed in Germany, Greece, and France by Afghan nationals last year.

In 2024, USAID funding for Afghanistan was recorded at over 744 billion US dollars, with more than half going to humanitarian assistance. This year’s budget is set at a mere 3.3 million US dollars compounding the already chronic donor funding shortfalls. With limited funding gaps to mitigate the impacts of a humanitarian crisis, more Afghans may be compelled to escape.