Why an EU-UK ‘youth mobility’ deal is hard – and how it could work
Source: Euractiv
BRUSSELS – Rats fleeing hell face better odds than the EU ‘youth mobility’ motion submitted to the British parliament this week, yet the proposal is not far from what may eventually become UK government policy.
James MacLeary, MP for the Liberal Democrats – the UK’s third-biggest and most pro-EU party – on Wednesday proposed that the government begin talks with “countries which are members of the European Union” on extending Britain’s visa regime for young adults.
At first glance, MacLeary appears to be pushing on an open door. The prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, wants to “reset” his country’s uneasy relations with Europe, and Britain already has a system allowing young people from 13 non-EU countries – including Australia, Canada, Japan, Iceland and India – to seek British work visas.
MacLeary’s party wants an agreement with the EU as a whole, but the wording of his proposal would admit talks with one government at a time.
Yet the official line from London is a blunt one. “There are no plans for a Youth Mobility Scheme, and we will not return to freedom of movement,” a spokesperson told Euractiv.
Part of the problem is that the European Commission – which says it wants a deal on youth mobility – is asking for a lot more than Starmer can realistically give.
Basically, the Commission wants what the Lib Dems want. The opening offer from Brussels is an agreement to allow British and European citizens aged 18-30 to “travel, work and live” in the EU and the UK, respectively, for up to four years.
Tough sell
In much of Britain, that’s as tough a sell as flogging Hawaiian pizzas in Naples.
To British ears, it sounds too close to freedom of movement, the ending of which was a major factor in voters’ decision to leave the EU in 2016.
Eurocrats can point to the glaring differences, but virtually nobody among the British public – including the 16 million who voted to remain in the EU – ever listens to a word they say about anything, ever.
Nevertheless, a four-year limit is far short of the EU’s general rules on free movement, which guarantee easy access to five-year residence permits and permanent residence thereafter.
But immigration is arguably the most heated issue in modern Britain.
Starmer’s centre-left Labour government, which has promised to cut immigration, can’t risk handing Brussels anything that the opposition Conservatives could paint as a blank cheque.
Youth unemployment
There’s also more to the problem than the political ‘optics.’
A broad youth mobility agreement with the entire European Union – as opposed to individual deals with specific EU countries – may pose risks for Britain’s labour market.
For example, in Spain – a country of 48 million people – more than a quarter of those under the age 25 are unemployed, according to Eurostat, the EU’s official statistics office.
Sweden, Greece, Portugal, Luxembourg and France also have youth unemployment rates north of 20%.
The equivalent figure in Britain is 13.9%. Voters are likely to punish any government that exposes young British jobseekers to more foreign competition.
Granted, those unemployed Brits could seek similar opportunities in wealthier parts of Europe. But even when the country was a full member of the EU, it was a tiny minority who emigrated to the continent.
The Lib Dems have only ever prospered by catering to an electoral niche – but in most of the country, anything that smells like free movement is a vote-loser.
One way around that problem is to do precisely what MacLeary’s motion calls for: strike individual deals, one EU member state at a time. That would allow London to take economic disparities into account when negotiating the terms.
The Commission really doesn’t like that idea; it says it wants equal treatment for all member states. Ever since the 2016 referendum, Brussels has insisted member states maintain a united front in all talks with London.
It also warns EU countries that the British might not be interested in a deal with each member state. That’s probably true, but for Britain, it’s an argument for bilateral deals rather than against them.
Poker faces
EU diplomats say they’re still struggling to understand exactly what kind of “reset” Starmer wants. It’s entirely possible the prime minister is still figuring that out himself.
But the renewed talks between London and Brussels are still in their early stages. Both sides have an incentive to open with tough negotiating positions – that’s how negotiation works.
The fact Britain has youth mobility agreements with Uruguay and India suggests it is unlikely that similar deals with Germany or Finland will be off the table forever.
If the EU can compromise on British concerns about controlling immigration, and if Starmer can find a way for Brussels to preserve a façade of European unity, then a youth mobility deal might be within reach.
[Edited by Owen Morgan]
The original article: belongs to Euractiv .
